Marvin Shilmer

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Posts by Marvin Shilmer

• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “And you're trying to get to 250,000.”

  No.

  I’m not trying to get to any particular number. Rather, I’ve shared what hard numbers tells us conservatively.

  Additionally, in this discussion I’ve explained that merely assuming the total number of preventable deaths due to refusing blood by JWs suffering severe anemia was equal in all New Zealand trauma centers as found in the 4 Beliaev et al’s data set came from it would increase the number of deaths to over 200,000 over the period of 1961 to 2011.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “How many of the 12,700 are part of the group of 103? (hint, the answer is exactly 103)”

  I agree the number of JWs in the study who suffered severe anemia is 103, and that of these 103 all suffered severe anemia.

  “The increased mortality rate applies TO THEM ONLY and can't be applied to the whole 12,700.”

  The increased mortality rate applied to the 103 but the hard number of 19 preventable deaths was 19 of the annual average of 12,700 JWs. My article uses these hard numbers (19 and 12,700). My article does not make use of the statistical increase of mortality as a percentage of the 103.

  My statistical conclusion uses the annual hard number (avg) of 12,700 JWs per year as the sample and 19 as a population of that sample.

  You apparently don’t know the difference. You’re comparing things I don’t use, and don’t understand the numbers I have used.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “Yes, JWs can have a higher mortality rate when they are in a situation where refusing blood affects their mortality rate.”

  No.

  It’s not that JWs can have a higher mortality rate when suffering severe anemia.

  It’s that JWs do have a higher mortality rate when suffering severe anemia.

  That higher mortality rate results in—guess what—more deaths. Higher mortality means higher numbers.

  I have no reason to think JWs present at hospitals with conditions resulting in severe anemia any more or less than does the general population. During the years of 1998 to 2007 there were 103 such JWs among an average JW population of 12,700. Of these, statistically 19 died that could have been saved by comparison with the general population who were given blood transfusion therapy refused by JWs.

  This increased mortality rate can be calculated against the total population of JWs because I have no reason to think JWs present at hospitals in New Zealand with conditions resulting in severe anemia any more or less than does JWs in the rest of the world.

  “You seem to be the one leaping in here on the topic ... but I guess the AAWA were criticised and the Marvin-light shone into the sky so you strapped your utility belt on and swung into action ... again. You do love those AAWA jokers so ...”

  You have an obsession Simon.

  I entered this discussion because my work was invoked. Take a look! The rest is your obsessive imagination.

  “I am more than happy to let the audience decide which numbers and methodology make most sense and which figures seem more reasonable.”

  Alas! Something we agree on!

  More important, I’m happy to have trained statisticians examine the veracity of conclusions I’ve published.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “No, it doesn't. You are making that leap but statistically it's bogus. All the study has is 103 witness patients over a 10 year period who were already suffering severe anemia.

  “That's like taking mortality rates from a severe burns unit and coming up with a figure for how many people will burn to death out of the general population.”

  Simon,

  Only you know what that is supposed to mean.

  The 19 deaths among 103 JW patients was of a total sample size averaging 12,700. You don’t understand the difference between a statistical sample set versus a population of that sample set.

  The finding of increased mortality due to refusing blood transfusion is not mine. Increased mortality is increased mortality.

  In the case of the New Zealand data study it happens to be the case that we have a well-defined statistical sample because the country is an island, and it happens to have a world-class healthcare system. These two facts allow an extrapolation of deaths due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine for patients suffering severe anemia.

  The data set of New Zealand increased mortality is found in hard numbers.

  The data set of the New Zealand JWs is found in hard numbers.

  Apparently you don’t know what to do with hard numbers.

  Beliaev et al didn’t have your problem. Beliaev et al understood these hard numbers to mean JWs suffering severe anemia have a much higher mortality rate.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “Show us some basis for a 1% mortality rate. Why would JWs have a higher mortality rate than the general population?”

  According to the United Nations data set it’s safe to use 1% as an overall world mortality rate over the 50-year period of 1961 to 2011. (Use the selection filters available at: http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=PopDiv&f=variableID%3A65

  JWs have a higher mortality rate because conditions non-JWs can and do survive by accepting transfusion of blood product are conditions JWs die from by refusing transfusion of blood product. (See: Beliaev et al, Clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of allogeneic red-blood-cell transfusion in severe symptomatic anaemia, Vox Sanguinis (2012) 103, 18–24)

  “Your figure suggests more JWs die from refusing blood than for all other causes of death combined even though those other causes are what go on death certificates.”

  No. My numbers do not suggest anything remotely close to what you suggest. That you think otherwise is telling.

  “Why the obsession over a headline number just for attention when it's easily discredited?”

  I was going to ask you that question. You have an obsession.

  The numbers I’ve shared in this discussion are all explained and there for anyone who wants to examine. Your attempt at examination is pathetic for reasons already given in earlier posts by me. You hardly know how to add!

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “…I think you'd really have a hard time claiming that 1% of all JW deaths were related to blood.”

  Simon,

  I don’t understand your statistical analysis on page 2.

  In year 2011 alone a mortality rate of 1% yields about 74,000 deaths among JWs.

  A rate increase of 1/10th of 1% would yield over 200,000 additional deaths over the period of 1961 to 2011.

  A rate increase of 1/10th of 1% would be hard to notice unless hard numbers were known so a person could make the mathematical calculation.

  Have you taken a look at increased mortality rates for refusing blood transfusion? It’s staggering.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  I just took a look back at my calculator used in the estimation of 50,000 deaths (over the 50 year period of 1961 t0 2011) and tinkered with just one of several factors, each of which would push the mortality rate higher.

  The one factor I adjusted for was the number of trauma centers. The population of 19 deaths were documented at a small number of trauma centers. Purely for sake of discussion I assumed that each of the nation's trauma centers experienced similar rates of mortality due to JWs refusing blood. But I did not assume that any of the many other hospitals in the country suffered even a single death due to the same cause.

  This one adjustment alone statistically raises the total number of deaths due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine over the 50-year period of 1961 to 2011 from 50,000 to 213,000.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “BTW: Marvin - I think your article with the 50k claim is severely flawed as you are trying to extrapolate from an incredibly small group of 19 people over a 10 year period.”

  People who do not understand something should refrain from criticizing it.

  My article does not extrapolate from a group of 19 people over a 10-year period. My articled extrapolated from a group average of 12,700 annually. Statistically, 19 is the population, not the group.

  12,700 is not an incredibly small group.

  “You also make the mistake of taking the 19 deaths out of 103 people suffering severe anemia who may have been saved by transfusion and then applying it to the 7m+ witnesses, most of whom were probably pretty healthy and certainly have no reason to fall into the same class.”

  You mean like “most of” the annual average of 12,700 in New Zealand were “probably pretty healthy and certainly have no reason to fall into the same class”?

  “Finally, you can't apply percentages to percentages as you do in some of your calculations.”

  Why? Because you say so?

  “Rather than your figure being low or conservative as you claim, I'd say it was wildly high and plucked out of the air.”

  Besides reasons I’ve already expressed in this discussion, there is direct reason why my extrapolation is extremely conservative. I use the entire population of JWs in New Zealand to extrapolate mortality based on deaths that occurred at 4 hospitals with trauma services out of 14 such hospitals in the 2 regions. My extrapolation assumes that not one single JW died of anemia by refusing blood transfusion in any of the other 10 hospitals with trauma services, not to mention any of the other regional hospitals.

  “Looking at it another way, it's like trying to predict the divorce rate for JWs based on a study of just 19 people in 1 congregation of 103 people.”

  My conclusions are not based on a study of “just 19 people”.

  My conclusions are based on a study of 12,700 (avg) people over a period of 10 years.

  People who do not understand something should refrain from criticizing it.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “…those high numbers 250,000 just aren't realistic.”

  Anecdotal evidence is a poor basis for conclusions, and that is the underpinning of your conclusion above. Newspapers are not a very good resource for measuring deaths due to following Watchtower doctrine. If any information source leverages sensationalism it’s the commercial news sources. It’s how they sell their news. Yet most deaths due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine never see the news. Why? It’s not sufficiently sensational unless a child or mother is involved. Even then these cases go underreported in news media unless hospital officials or individual physicians publicize the event.

  Finding this information is a process of meticulously scouring medical records by professionals trained to understand what they’re reading.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 
  739

  250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

  by nicolaou in

  1. watchtower
  2. medical

  80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

  250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

  stop this #cult!

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “i got baptised 50 years ago--and i doubt if there have been 50 blood refusal deaths in all that time---in the UK.”

  I think you should expand your knowledge by reviewing vetted literature on the subject of Jehovah’s Witnesses and mortality due to abiding by Watchtower’s blood doctrine.

  The UK produces a document titled Confidential Enquiry into Maternal Deaths Report (CEMD) with the purpose of identifying mortality related to maternity. Significant to Jehovah’s Witnesses is the following finding:

  “In the CEMD the very high risk of mortality in women who refuse blood transfusion was highlighted [4]. The death rate in this group was 1 per 1,000 maternities compared with an expected incidence of less than 1 per 100,000 maternities.”—( Khadra et al, A criterion audit of women's awareness of blood transfusion in pregnancy, BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 2002, 2:7 (Full text available at: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2393/2/7)

  This report of mortality due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine is of only a single patient presentation when there are many presentations where insufficient blood supply leads to death without blood transfusion.

  Marvin Shilmer